Record-Warm Atlantic Temperatures Drive NOAA's Revised Above-Normal Hurricane Predictions

Scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, announced an updated forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season today. The prediction has been adjusted from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal one. The change is attributed to current ocean and atmospheric conditions, notably record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which are anticipated to counteract the generally inhibitive conditions of the ongoing El Nino event.

The revised likelihood for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season now stands at 60%, up from the 30% predicted in the May outlook. Consequently, the chances for near-normal activity have been slashed to 25% from May's 40%. The Atlantic now holds a 15% chance of experiencing a below-normal season.

NOAA's comprehensive update, spanning the entire six-month hurricane season ending on November 30, projects:

14-21 named storms (with winds reaching at least 39 mph)

6-11 of these potentially escalating to hurricane status (winds surging to 74 mph or above)

2-5 possibly becoming major hurricanes (winds accelerating to 111 mph or more)

It's worth noting that NOAA has provided these forecasts with a 70% confidence, and these ranges consider storms that have already formed this season.

Reflecting on the season's beginnings, the Atlantic has already witnessed five storms achieving at least tropical storm strength, inclusive of one hurricane. An average season typically generates 14 named storms, seven of which transform into hurricanes and three into major hurricanes.

Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, elaborated, "The principal climate influencers this year are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, coupled with the record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Taking these into account, we're expecting increased activity and recommend immediate preparations."