Forecasters Lower Outlooks Slightly But Still Predict Above-Average Hurricane Season

Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have lowered their extended-range hurricane forecasts ever so slightly but continue to predict an above-average season, according to their mid-season updates released Thursday.

NOAA is now calling for 14 to 20 named storms, compared to 14 to 21 in their May forecast, of which six to 10 will become hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes, which is defined as Category 3 and higher, or winds of 111 mph and greater.

Colorado State’s current forecast calls for 18 named storms and eight hurricanes, a slight decrease from June’s forecast which estimated there would be 20 storms and 10 hurricanes. The newest prediction calls for four of the hurricanes to be major.

The forecasts include the three named storms that have already occurred this year: Tropical Storm Alex, which formed June 2 over the Yucatan Peninsula and brought drenching rains to South Florida and Cuba; Hurricane Bonnie, which made brief landfall on the Costa Rica-Nicaragua border on July 1 as a tropical storm, then intensified into a Category 3 storm before dissipating over the Pacific Ocean; and Tropical Storm Colin, which formed offshore of Savannah, Georgia, on July 1 before moving inland across coastal South Carolina.